This Blog is Bound to Fail

Written On Day: 14

I just checked – WordPress 2.7 (a blog creation tool) has been downloaded 1,175,343 times.

This does not necessarily mean that there are 1,175,343 WordPress 2.7 blogs out there.  Lets try to figure out how many people have downloaded it and have a blog.  Some assumptions: 

  1. Half of all the people that downloaded it had to download it twice.  Who knows, maybe the first time they downloaded to a folder which later they could not find.  Actual blogs: 881,507
  2. Half of those people download it but never bothered to go further.  They had a dream of creating a blog and 1000’s of people reading it everyday.  That dream, like most, will never be realized because they do nothing after downloading.  Actual blogs: 440,753
  3. Half of those people create a blog but do not do any proper advertising.  So there is no way to find them.  Only their family and friends know about it.  In Google search it is on page 16.  Actual Blogs: 220,376

Ok, so after all this assuming is done we are left with 220,376 actual blogs that can be found on the internet.

How many successful blogs are there.  This is hard to determine, because the definition of a successful blog is quite relative.  So lets say a blog that makes enough money to suport the webmaster and his family confortably is considered successful.  So:

  1. Of all the blogs in my niche (making money online) I can think about 5 of them that have enough traffic to be considered a success. But since I have probably not found all of them lets say there are 10.
  2. There are hundreds of niches with blogs that are popular enough to be considered a success. Lets say 500.

Therefore of all the blogs created (220,376) only 500*10=5000 can be considered a successful.  That is 2%.  The above can be summurized for WordPress downloads:

  • Of all the WordPresses downloaded only 0.42% will become successful.
  • Of all the WordPresses downloaded and blog created only 2% will become successful.

Of course all these are just rough numbers full of wild assumptions, but I would not be too suprised if the real figures are much different.  Actually my gut feeling is that the percent of successful blogs is even less.  Expecially since these are only WordPress blogs.  A lots more other types of blogs are competing to be the 10 best of every niche.

The point.  Do not be suprised if this blog is not around next year.

  1. February 12th, 2010 at 23:06 | #1

    >I can think about 5 of them that have enough traffic to be considered a success.

    Success isn’t necessarily related to traffic. Some people might be perfectly happy just to have a few relatives and some friends reading their blog. Others might consider it a success just to be able to record and access their thought from anywhere on the internet.

    It’s not all about getting visitors and making money.

  2. Linda Burke
    June 5th, 2011 at 22:39 | #2

    I was referred to your blog by the webmaster of ?Coffee Mill? something or other. I will be heading back to his blog in a bit. However, I just want to say that so far, in reading your blog from the beginning, you are soooooo funny! I look forward to reading the rest of your posts, as long as your blog is still around to read!! Thanks for the laughs. I have a suck-ish blog that absolutely nobody reads but me, but I have not given up! See you on the other side!

  1. No trackbacks yet.
You must be logged in to post a comment.