Traffic Going Up – Money Random

Written On Day: 44
Internet Traffic and Revenue

This site has been live for 42 days.  Everyday, first thing in the morning, I check the stats.  How many visitors?  What is the revenue?  I take these numbers and input them into the database.  Then I click a few more buttons and the website is updated with the latest information.

Traffic is Predictable – Most Of The Time

Most of the 42 days came with no surprises.  The number of visitors is either close to what it was the day before or a little higher.  The trend is definitely up.  At first it was around 4 visitors a day, then 10, then 40, and now it is around 50.  Without doing much, I get around 50 visitors. 

There was one surprising traffic day.  Feb 9, 2009.  Just before I went for lunch there was the usual 10 visitors.  All normal.  Then after a hour and a half, the waitress was slow, I checked my stats again. 88 visitors.  I hit the refresh again out of surprise.  Still there – 88 visitors.  I began to think to myself – the day has arrived.  People are finally appreciating my work. 

I almost rubbed off the F5 key (refresh) on my keyboard by pressing it so many times.  Every minute there appeared more visitors.  Something was going on.  So I checked where the traffic is coming from.  Reddit.  Reddit?  What is that?  I had no idea.  I opened the browser and went on the reddit website.  It is a website where people can post interesting things from the Internet.  Somebody posted my site.  Reddit users where checking out the site. 

I was so happy.  Thought all my problems were solved.  Now the snowball is rolling.  It can only get bigger. 

I was wrong.  By 3pm Prague time it had completed its cycle through reddit.  No  more new visitors.  My website became lost in the pile of millions of other websites on reddit.  Never to be found again.  It was there and then it was gone. The snowball broke apart after a couple rolls.

The next day traffic was back to normal.  The interesting thing is that revenue did not go up on that high traffic day.  It was less then the day before.  The doubling of traffic had no effect on revenue.  I thought traffic=revenue was a fundamental principle.  Guess not.

Revenue Has A Life Of Its Own

Revenue does not seem to have any kind of trend.  There can be 5 clicks or 3, sometimes  0.  It is all over the place.  A perfect example is on February 4 the revenue was $15.06.  Completely unexplained.  There was no increase in traffic, nor did I try something new.  For some reason, on that day a lot of people clicked on text ads.  I do not know why. 

Maybe there was a really good ad showing up.  One that attracted a lot of people to click on it.  Unfortunately, there is no way to tell which ad was clicked. 

All I can do is assume that it was a statistically improbable day.  On that day, it just so happened, that a lot of people who click on ads visited my website. 

That day I was too excited to care about why I was getting so many clickers.  Simply happy that I was getting them.  In a state of excitement made the following calculation: $15.06 * 30 days is $451.18 a month.  I am going to be rich.

Next day the revenue was $0.00.  The excitement quickly fell to sorrow and confusion. No clickers.  Not a single one.  The day after my greatest revenue day was a 0 revenue day.  Inconceivable.  I guess another statistically improbable day –  of all the visitors, none were clickers.  I flipped heads 10 times in a row.  Improbable, but possible.

It All Evens Out

Revenue seems to work on the law of large numbers.  Revenue can be $10 or $0 on any given day.  But in the long run – over many days it all evens out.  Daily revenue is unpredictable, but on average this website makes: 41 days divided by 89.69 – $2.18 a day.

  1. February 14th, 2009 at 18:17 | #1

    What are the sources of revenue for this report? Just adsense?

  2. roman
    February 14th, 2009 at 20:26 | #2

    @tom
    Yes for this report the revenue is from adsense. So far no other revenue streams are making money. See Revenue Streams for a complete revenue breakdown.

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