The Price of Traffic

Written On Day: 17

 The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.  Everybody knows that.  But what I did not know, and just recently discovered, is that the price of traffic is also eternal vigilance.

As you can seen from the website traffic data page so far the traffic is coming very slowly.  At the beginning there was basically no traffic.  Then I started to post on a forum.  Each post ends with my signature which is a link to the website.  Every time I made a post, a few hours later my traffic would go up.

The problem is that the traffic does not stay up.  If I miss a day of posting then the traffic goes down.  Post then get visitors.  No post, no visitors.  Eternal vigilance – post everyday.

The website is still at its infancy and no traffic has come by search engines or word of mouth.  I can deem some interesting information with the threads I have created on a forum.  Since all my traffic has come from them.

So far I have started a total of 6 threads.  By taking the number of people that visited the website (147) by the number of posts (6) we can see that every post is worth almost 24 visitors.  This is sad.  Because so far it looks like I would need to create 41 threads a day to get 1000 visitors a day.  Unfortunately to make this possible I would need a team of a thousand monkeys typing a thousand words.

This means that the forum I am creating threads at is too small.  Not enough views.  Looking back at the last few days of my posts I can see that they have been viewed 851 times.  Out of all the people viewing my threads 17% of them click on the signature line.

All the above can be summarized as: for every thread created on a forum my website receives 17 visitors per 100 views.

Therefore to reach my goal of a 1000 visitors per day I need 5882 thread views.  Or to start 10 threads each receiving at least 588 views.  Still a lot but getting closer to being possible on large forums.

Two conclusions can be made:

  1. By posting on big forums I will still need to be vigilant and post every day, but at least I will be closer to 1000 visitors a day and not 15.
  2. I need to find other ways to get traffic.

Data used to for calculations:

  • Unique visitors: 67
  • Visitors: 147
  • Threads created: 6
  • Clicked on Signature: 23
  • Number Views in forum: 851

Note: The only way to explain the discrepancy between ‘unique visitors’ (67) and ‘clicked on signature’ (23) is to assume that some of the visitors that clicked on the signature emailed a link of the website to their friends.

Make Money Online With 10000 Hours Experience

Written On Day: 16

Recently Malcolm Gladwell wrote a book about geniuses (Outliers: The Story of Success).  In it he argues that our notions of geniuses are mostly wrong.  We picture a genius as someone who, against all odds, rises to the top because of talent and special abilitie.

Gladwell claims that this view is wrong.  In fact, he argues, successful people got where there are not through special talent, but simply by practicing a lot.  The winners are those that have the most experience.  And most importantly have that experience before anybody else.

Becoming an Expert In Only 10000 Hours

It is claimed that 10000 hours is the time required to become a expert in a field.  And it does not matter which field.  It could be piano player, programmer, or accountant. 10000 hours of practice is required.  Only once you achieve this base amount of experience can you start trying to direct your experience into a specific direction and become the best.  Before you even try to be the best you better have 10000 hours of experience.

In the book Gladwell gives many examples.  Bill Gates had access to a computer before almost everybody else in the world.  While other kids where playing with hula hoops Bill was practicing his programming.  By the time computers became accessible to other people Bill had the 10000 hours under his belt.  A big advantage.

Other examples include Mozart, Gretzky, John Lennon.  All of these guys had some advantage that enabled them to get 10000 hours of experience before their competition.

I will be an Expert in 9,900 Hours

What does this mean for me?  I am just starting out in the online business world.  My total experience is ~100 hours.  And I know that I am starting out late.  Making money online has been around since at least 1995.  This puts me way behind.

First I need to gather 10000 hours of experience just to become an expert.  If I spend ~2 hours a day working on my website then I will gain the required expertise in 5000 days (13 years).  Only then I can begin to compete against other experts who have been around for a while.

This is not good.  People with 10000 hours of experience are already around and they are making money online.  But by the time I get my 10000 hours they will have 10000 more.  There is no way out of this conundrum.  I cannot become the Bill Gates, Gretzky, Mozart of the online money making industry.

The problem is that I started too late.  I can never become the best in this field.  There will always be somebody with more experience then me.  Somebody who will already know what I just “discovered”.

The only thing I can hope for is that Gladwell is wrong.  Well at least partly wrong.  I need some of my personal talent, whatever it is, to give me some advantage.  An advantage that lets me bypass 9,900 hours of experience.